Research

Working Papers

1. Flooded House or Underwater Mortgage? The Macrofinancial Implications of Climate Change and Adaptation (Job Market Paper)

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2023-014/IV, (available on SSRN). Revised: March, 2025.

Finalist, Young Economist Prize, European Central Bank (2024),

Best Student Paper Award, CEPR European Conference on Household Finance (2023),

Best Single-Authored Paper Award, European Sustainable Finance PhD Workshop (2023).

Abstract: I study the macrofinancial implications of climate change and private adaptation. Households are exposed to physical climate risks, damaging housing and degrading land which is in inelastic supply. While the exposure to climate risk weakens demand for housing, I show that the materialization of climate change raises house prices, as habitat becomes increasingly scarcer. This leads to a reallocation of credit in the economy towards households. In frictionless markets, price signals lead to efficient adaptation. However, credit-constrained households have weaker incentives to adapt to climate change, indicating that pricing alone may be insufficient. Unequal adaptation reinforces wealth inequality and leads to a further reduction in future habitat. As housing becomes increasingly important relative to future consumption, the private adaptation gap widens over time. I show that a societal shift from constrained homeownership to a rental model with unconstrained owners could lead to more efficient adaptation.

Conferences: Society for Economic Dynamics 2025 (Copenhagen); AEA-ASSA Annual Conference 2025 (poster session, San Francisco); ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra 2024 (Young Economist Competition); MoFiR Workshop on Banking 2024 (short presentation, London); 1st CEPR-ESSEC-Luxembourgh Conference on Sustainable Financial Intermediation 2024 (short presentation, Luxembourgh); 1st NY Fed & NYU Fed Summer Climate Finance Conference 2024 (poster session);  HEC Paris Finance PhD Workshop 2024; CEPR European Conference on Household Finance 2023 (Turin); IWH-Fin-Fire Workshop on Challenges to Financial Stability 2023 (Halle); Norges Bank Research Workshop Woman in Central Banking 2023 (Oslo); IPWSD at Columbia University in the City of New York 2023; CEPR Paris Symposium 2023 (poster session); European Sustainable Finance PhD Workshop 2023 (Utrecht); Conference of the French Finance Association 2023 (PhD workshop, Bordeaux); Portuguese Finance Network Conference 2023 (Madeira); Dutch Economist Day 2022 (The Hague). 

Seminars: Job talk Northwestern Kellogg School of Management; Stockholm School of Economics; Nova SBE; Bocconi; Frankfurt School of Finance & Management; BI Norwegian Business School; Copenhagen Business School; Vienna School of Economics and Business; KU Leuven; other HEC-HKUST Sustainable Finance Webinar; Massachusetts Institute of Technology  (Sustainable Urbanization Lab); Imperial College Business School (Formal PhD Seminar);  University of Mannheim; De Nederlandsche Bank; University of Amsterdam.

Media coverage: VoxTalks Economics 

Other coverage: Discussed in the Handbook of the Economics of Climate Change in the chapter on Adaptation to Climate Change (NBER WP version). 

2. Funding the Fittest? Pricing Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market 

with M.A. Boermans & M.J.G. Bun. 

De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 797 (available on SSRN). Revised: March, 2025.

Abstract:  We examine whether climate transition risk affects the cost of capital and how investors value green innovation. Using confidential bond-level holdings and global firm data, we find evidence of a positive transition risk premium. This premium is lower for emission-intensive firms that actively engage in green innovation, suggesting that investors recognize and reward efforts to mitigate climate change. While investors divest from emission intensive firms, our findings suggest that those with greater risk-bearing capacity play a crucial role in the green transition by channeling capital toward emission-intensive firms that actively invest in green innovation. European institutional investors, particularly mutual funds, demonstrate a stronger demand for bonds issued by these firms, reducing their cost of capital relative to other emission intensive firms. 

Conferences: Financial Intermediation Research Society 2025 (Seoul); GRASFI Annual Conference 2024 (Singapore), International Conference in Finance, Accounting and Banking 2024 (Southampton)*; RCEA International Conference in Economics, Econometrics, and Finance 2024 (London)*; IAAE Annual Conference 2024 (Thessaloniki)*; International Panel Data Conference 2024 (Orléans)*; Dutch Economist Day 2024 (The Hague).

Seminars: Nova SBE; Tilburg University;  Imperial College Business School  (Informal PhD Seminar); ESCB  Research Cluster Climate Change*;  University of Utrecht (School of Economics)*; De Nederlandsche Bank;  Robeco Asset Management; University of Amsterdam.

Policy notes:  De Nederlandsche Bank  ·  SUERF   ·  E-Axes Forum.

Media coverage: Bloomberg. 

3. Political Economy of Climate Change Adaptation

with E.C. Perotti & F. Van der Ploeg. 

CEPR Discussion Paper DP18959, CESifo Working Paper No. 10961, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2024-013/IV,  (available on SSRN). Revised: May, 2024.

Abstract: We study the evolution of voter support for public adaptation when political preferences are shaped by rising climate risk and economic inequality. Political support for tax-funded intervention to preserve habitable land evolves over time when households differ in age, income and beliefs. Support for public adaptation is initially low, rising as climate risk increases. We show that the political equilibrium experiences a tipping point in response to habitat loss if beliefs are not too dispersed, leading to a shift towards a more active adaptation policy. A steady rise in inequality may induce a second tipping point, but the policy impact depends on the balance between the gap in income and beliefs. Overall, public intervention is undermined by a "tragedy of the horizon" effect as cohorts internalize only partially its long-term benefits for future generations. This prevents public adaptation from converging to the social optimum even when political support is highest. 

Conferences: Vienna Workshop on The Political Economy of the Environment 2025; EJPE-CEPR-Bocconi Political Economy Conference 2024 (Naples); Conference on Sustainable Resource Use and Economic Dynamics 2024  (Monte Verità); Dutch Environmental and Resource Economics Day 2024 (Utrecht); CEPR Paris Symposium 2023.

Seminars: University of Amsterdam.

Policy notes: VoxEU.

4. Home Improvements, Wealth Inequality and the Energy-Efficiency Paradox

with M.Droës.

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2024-026/IV,  (available on SSRN).

Abstract: We explore the rate at which households go green and its effects on the distribution of wealth. Using unique Dutch data, we find that lower-income households are less likely to improve energy-efficiency. At the same time, higher-income households often sort in more energy-efficient homes. Energy savings amount to 17% of median net wealth, with sorting explaining 65% of this effect. Policies encouraging lower-income households to live in energy-efficient homes reduce wealth inequality but miss 83% of potential CO2 benefits, as higher-income households are more brown. Thus, our analysis highlights a policy trade-off between reducing energy expenditures and effectively reducing CO2 emissions. 

Presentations: AREUEA-ASSA Annual Conference 2025 (San Francisco); AREUEA International Conference 2024 (Curaçao); ERES Annual Conference 2024 (Gdánsk)*;  Royal Dutch Economic Association New Paper Session 2024 (The Hague). 

Seminars: Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy (EZK); Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK)*; De Nederlandsche Bank; ABN AMRO Bank; University of Amsterdam.

Policy notes: ESB (in Dutch).